Sustainable Aviation Fuel

SAF projects face complex interdependencies across markets, technology, and policy. Although SAF can dramatically reduce emissions, high production costs—typically multiple times the cost of fossil jet fuel—remain a barrier to widespread adoption, slowing investment and commercialization. Supply projections indicate that even with announced projects, SAF output could materially undershoot the volumes needed to meet regulatory and voluntary commitments by 2030.

In addition the SAF market currently lacks the depth of liquid contracts and consistent standards needed to attract large-scale capital at the pace required. Fragmented contracting practices and varying regional eligibility criteria increase complexity for developers and offtakers alike. Strengthening cross-industry collaboration, pooling demand through consortiums or funds, and scaling production facilities with common standards are key enablers for closing the supply gap.

Feedstock logistics also pose material challenges: securing sustainable, low-carbon feedstocks at scale requires coordination across upstream supply chains, verification frameworks, and transportation infrastructure. At the same time, producers and airlines must structure long-term commitments—such as offtake agreements and strategic equity stakes—to provide the revenue certainty investors and lenders require.

Technology and pathway selection: Evaluating HEFA, ATJ, and FT pathways against feedstock availability, carbon intensity targets, product yields, blending limits, and long-term technical operability.

Feedstock supply and logistics: Securing scalable, verifiable feedstock sources while planning transportation, storage, blending, and certification infrastructure required to reliably support sustained SAF production.

Capital cost and execution strategy: Developing realistic project scopes, capital estimates, and schedules that reflect SAF-specific process units, long-lead equipment, modularization opportunities, and labor constraints.

Regulatory and incentive alignment: Designing projects to comply with SAF eligibility rules, sustainability certification frameworks, tax credits, mandates, and evolving regional policy requirements.

Contracting and risk allocation: Structuring EPC, licensor, and supplier contracts to balance technology performance guarantees, cost certainty, schedule risk, and lender and investor expectations.

Market and offtake readiness: Aligning production volumes, certification timelines, and delivery infrastructure with airline offtake requirements to support bankability, financing, and long-term commercial viability.